Strikeforce is opening 2011 with a bang tonight in San Jose. The card highlighted by two title fights, also has Herschel Walker in his second MMA fight. The odds are huge for three of the four big fights. Welterweight champ Nick Diaz is a massive favorite over Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos. The same goes for the inexperienced Walker. At minus-340, that's quite the leap of faith by the public and the sportsbooks.
Roger Gracie is the smallest favorite at minus-150 over Trevor Prangley. The South African has an interesting challenge in front of him. He's giving away a lot of size against the 6-foot-4 jiu-jitsu ace. Gracie is the much better grappler. Once it gets to the ground, Prangley is in trouble. He's a powerful guy and savvy on the ground, but he won't be able to use his strength to muscle out of submission attempts.
Robbie Lawler is a big underdog against Strikeforce middleweight champ Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. Jacare's jiu-jitsu pedigree is sick, but he's learning how to fight on the feet. Lawler has been a monster at middleweight. His takedown defense has always been solid. He's got a good shot at stealing some dog money at plus-210, with the power he's got in both hands.
The crew at Bloody Elbow made their picks straight up. Diaz swept the board while Jacare got the nod from 6-of-8 writers. Walker was picked by all eight, and according to BE, Prangley looks like a live dog. Five of the guys picked Prangley to take out the 2-0 Gracie. Luke Thomas was very down on Gracie:
I am not a believer in Roger Gracie. It's obviously amazing he can tap 7 world-class black belts in a row in grappling tournaments with a cross choke from the mount, but MMA is another story. He's got virtually no striking and virtually no wrestling. Prangley's got a little more of each. If the fight hits the third round, things get dicey, but I like Prangley to upset.
Strikeforce betting odds (Las Vegas Hilton):
Official plays in bold
Nick Diaz (-340) vs. Evangelista Santos (+280) - Welterweight title
Robbie Lawler (+210) vs. Ronaldo Souza (-250) - Middleweight title
Scott Carson (+280) vs. Herschel Walker (-340) - Heavyweight
Trevor Prangley (+130) vs. Roger Gracie (-150) - Light heavyweight
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